Externally, the complexity of the Starlink system combined with the complexity of military systems further increases the likelihood of crisis events. The domain of warfare contains a series of uncertainties that induce crises. Schelling pointed out: “Violence, especially war, is a chaotic and uncertain act, with high unpredictability. It depends on decisions made by imperfect governments composed of fallible people, relies on fallible communication and alarm systems, and untested personnel and equipment.”48 The U.S.’s push for the military application of Starlink leads to the interaction of internal uncertainties with external military system uncertainties, increasing the risk of crisis accidents. For instance, as an essential direction of Starlink’s military application, space-based early warning systems are increasingly becoming a crucial means of preventing ballistic missile surprise attacks. Correspondingly, attacking adversary space-based early warning satellites becomes a key step in achieving strategic surprise attack objectives, widely regarded as a signal of war initiation. Specifically, attack methods include laser destruction, laser blinding, electromagnetic interference, kinetic kill, and destruction of space-based components of the nuclear kill chain, with different methods representing and transmitting varying levels of escalation signals. However, given the current large scale of the Starlink constellation and the increasingly crowded outer space environment, some scholars have pointed out: “When satellite failures occur, it is extremely difficult to accurately attribute the failure to natural or accidental causes (such as space weather disasters, space debris impacts), unintended interference, or deliberate aggression.”49 Strategic suspicion of potential adversaries will lead to accidental events being misinterpreted as deliberate attacks or low-intensity attacks being perceived as high-intensity, leading to accidental crisis escalation.
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